Ryohei Hisano and Didier Sornette wrote in 2012 a paper titled, “On the distribution of time-to-proof of mathematical conjectures.”

Today Ken and I discuss predicting the end to mathematical conjectures. This is apart from considering odds on which way they will go, which we also talk about.

Nine years ago the Christmas issue of the New Scientist magazine analyzed a small set of solved mathematical conjectures and used it to forecast when the P vs. NP conjecture would be solved. The article estimated that the “probability for the P vs. NP problem to be solved by the year 2024 is roughly 50%”.