I thought I was seeing fewer arXiv papers on the front page of Hacker News (HN) these days, and I wanted to check if that was real.

So I asked Claude to run a quick analysis: track the share of arXiv stories on HN over time. It queried the BigQuery HN dataset, bucketed the stories by month.

This is the 16th year we’ve been teaching the Stanford Lean LaunchPad class. This year, from the first hour of the first class, we realized we were seeing something extraordinary happen. It was both the end and beginning of a new era.

Teams showed up to the first day of class with MVPs (Minimal Viable Products) looking like finished products that previous classes had taken weeks or months to build. After the class, as the instructors sat processing what just happened, we realized there’s no going back.

I’ve been writing about how AI is going to change startups, but the shock of seeing 8 teams actually implementing it was mind blowing. And not a single team thought they were doing anything extraordinary.

I’ve been getting more and more curious about the risk from Anthropic’s Claude Mythos Preview. So I pulled the system card, a whoppingly inefficient 244-page document that devotes just seven pages to the claim that the model is too dangerous to release. In fact, the 23MB of PDF I had to download was 20MB of wasted time and space. Compressing the PDF to 3MB meant I lost exactly nothing.

Foreshadowing, I guess.

Spoiler alert: the crucial seven pages out of 244 do not contain the word “fuzzer” once. That’s like a seven page vacation brochure for Hawaii that leaves out the word beaches.

Also, the crucial seven pages out of 244 do not contain the expected acronyms CVSS, CWE or CVE, they do not have comparison baseline, an independent reproduction, or the word “thousands.” I’ll get back to all of that in a minute.

The flagship demonstration document turns out to be like the ending of the Wizard of Oz, a sorry disappointment about a model weaponizing two bugs that a different model found, in software the vendor had already patched, in a test environment with the browser sandbox and defense-in-depth mitigations stripped out. Anthropic failed, and somehow the story was flipped into a warning about its success.