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7 results tagged climate_change  ✕
Future of the human climate niche | PNAS https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/28/1910114117
Tue 05 May 2020 09:52:49 AM CEST
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We show that for thousands of years, humans have concentrated in a surprisingly narrow subset of Earth’s available climates, characterized by mean annual temperatures around ∼13 °C. This distribution likely reflects a human temperature niche related to fundamental constraints. We demonstrate that depending on scenarios of population growth and warming, over the coming 50 y, 1 to 3 billion people are projected to be left outside the climate conditions that have served humanity well over the past 6,000 y. Absent climate mitigation or migration, a substantial part of humanity will be exposed to mean annual temperatures warmer than nearly anywhere today.

All species have an environmental niche, and despite technological advances, humans are unlikely to be an exception. Here, we demonstrate that for millennia, human populations have resided in the same narrow part of the climatic envelope available on the globe, characterized by a major mode around ∼11 °C to 15 °C mean annual temperature (MAT). Supporting the fundamental nature of this temperature niche, current production of crops and livestock is largely limited to the same conditions, and the same optimum has been found for agricultural and nonagricultural economic output of countries through analyses of year-to-year variation. We show that in a business-as-usual climate change scenario, the geographical position of this temperature niche is projected to shift more over the coming 50 y than it has moved since 6000 BP. Populations will not simply track the shifting climate, as adaptation in situ may address some of the challenges, and many other factors affect decisions to migrate. Nevertheless, in the absence of migration, one third of the global population is projected to experience a MAT >29 °C currently found in only 0.8% of the Earth’s land surface, mostly concentrated in the Sahara. As the potentially most affected regions are among the poorest in the world, where adaptive capacity is low, enhancing human development in those areas should be a priority alongside climate mitigation.

climate_change forecasting paper science
How the Rich Plan to Rule a Burning Planet https://www.hamptonthink.org/read/how-the-rich-plan-to-rule-a-burning-planet
Sun 23 Feb 2020 09:20:34 AM CET
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The climate crisis isn’t a future we must fight to avoid. It’s an already unfolding reality. It’s the intensification of extreme weather–cyclones, storms and floods, droughts and deadly heat waves. It’s burning forests in Australia, the Amazon, Indonesia, Siberia, Canada and California. It’s melting ice caps, receding glaciers and rising seas. It’s ecosystem devastation and crop failures. It’s the scarcity of resources spreading hunger and thirst. It’s lives and communities destroyed, and millions forced to flee.

article climate_change
Chasing climate change https://www.nrk.no/chasing-climate-change-1.14859595
Sat 08 Feb 2020 02:17:00 PM CET
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In Norway, way up by the Arctic circle, global warming is already affecting people and nature. Here's how.

art article climate_change story
Pavia Folperti, Lombardia, Italy Air Pollution: Real-time Air Quality Index http://aqicn.org/city/italy/lombardia/pavia-folperti/
Sat 01 Feb 2020 04:15:45 PM CET
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How polluted is the air today? Check out the real-time air pollution map, for more than 100 countries.

climate_change webservice
The world is not enough https://www.the-tls.co.uk/articles/the-world-is-not-enough/
Sun 05 Jan 2020 02:05:15 PM CET
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Hot things glow red, hotter things yellow, and really hot things white. When you heat glass, it does not shine forth with an encouraging green or pale.

article climate_change science
The future is grim | Cache Baba https://medium.com/@cache_86525/the-future-is-grim-27ca6f7ab07b
Sun 05 Jan 2020 10:00:02 AM CET
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Long article dealing with the several aspects and impacts of climate change.

With many references to papers and multimedia content to deepen the concepts.

article climate_change resources science
Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0666-7
Sat 04 Jan 2020 03:36:17 PM CET
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Detection and attribution typically aims to find long-term climate signals in internal, often short-term variability. Here, common methods are extended to high-frequency temperature and humidity data, detecting instantaneous, global-scale climate change since 1999 for any year and 2012 for any day.

climate_change paper science
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